Is the world economy fucked?

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The Dow gave way to the 10,000 psychological marker yesterday – that by itself may suggest the world economy is headed for a second round of grief – it’s no longer just a theoretical possibility after this, not in my book, at least.

The way I see it, the risk of further losses in the global markets remain very high – as most investors are still wary about contagion fears in the Eurozone along with the possibility of North Korea throwing a spanner into the Asia’s stellar economic growth  – you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to square off the accounts – the US is shot beyond all recognition, it doesn’t have nearly enough of the necessary mojo needed to climb out of this hole – as for Europe, the only thing that’s preventing it from being labeled a third world continent is the weather – and don’t count on dynamo China either as at some point even the communist would have engineer a slow down of the domestic economy to prevent it from overheating.

If you really want to understand why the world economy is so fucked up; understand this. The market is essentially a mass of emotions, manias, phobias and anxieties all rolled up into one nervous wreck –  and if I was pressed to give a name and face to the nemesis of every market – it’s simply uncertainty – uncertainty works not just by instilling fear, but by inducing a sense of helplessness.

And all these sudden events such as the meltdown in Greece and the recent saber rattling by psycho North Korea plays into the whole idea of randomness – randomness not only heightens the sense of fear. Indeed, the more indiscriminate it is in selecting its victims, the sharper that sense of fear gets (real or imagined). You see most of us don’t ever want to believe we could be done in by really simple stuff like loose tiles, blind drivers or that chicken bone that decides to lodge itself in our gullet – that’s why we regularly confect really complicated explanations for really simple things – that’s why 8 out of 10 people still believe Lady Diana was done in by the evil royal mafia – and if you ask these conspiracy theorist for proof, they would point to the blood thirsty reign of King Henry and his seven sad wife’s, irrevocable proof that a murderous blood line runs in the Windsor clan – same psychology holds true for the Mayan calendar prophecies; the Bermuda triangle and whether there is actually some creature called the Yeti prancing around somewhere in the Himalaya’s.  

I mean if the market was really mature, sensible and rational it could just as well shrug off all these imaginary fears by putting the entire Greece problem in the correct scale and perspective by asking itself a few sober questions – like how can a country that only accounts for less than 2% of the cumulative wealth of the Eurozone possibly imperil its neighbors? Or how can a country like North Korea that just has a few museum relics of arms and cannot even feed itself without foreign aid possibly be a threat to anyone but itself?

Unfortunately, when the market is spooked – fear drives out all consideration of sense and sensibilities – and all we are left with is that sinking feeling of uncertainty that just takes us deeper into the mental territory which is beyond our comprehension – and once you’re in that zone where you can’t even tell whether its night or day – you left from your right foot – your liver from your spleen – it’s a vicious cycle and the sheer irrationality of this psychology just becomes impossible to drive out.

I am afraid, we may very well see this tipping point very soon – could be wrong – have been wrong plenty of times before – but if I had to hazard a guess the risk of further losses may be substantial. Even a one-third decline from today’s levels over the next 12 months wouldn’t surprise me a bit – that’s really as good as it gets – so tie down everything, suck it all in, take your stations and hold on tight, we’re heading straight for a mother.

Darkness 2010 – The Brotherhood Press (sponsored by the Interspacing Mercantile Guild & The Confederation of Underground Gamers)

“Our way of life may be coming to an end Gentlemen. For 2,000 years we have successfully cowered the four houses of the Guilds in the way a man holds a serpent by it’s head extracting venom to make medicine.

But look what has happened in just these few years; we have lost our influence from Cardellian system all the way to the edge of the known universe to a new breed of diplomats that the guilds have been developing secretly – already they have full control of the Straits right up to the Balkans, Caucasus and greater Japan across the Pacific Basin stretching to Europa and beyond – their diplomats enter into joint agreements with the Germans, French, Americans and Japanese without even bothering to consult us - and we are not dealing with idiots either; these new breed of Guildmen are not the same people who we regularly used to bully into submission – they are the likes of Singaporedaddy,  Kadjal and Belfair, who are not only well educated but adept in the art of diplomacy, strategy and the weirding ways – so these are men who can multi task, so they are not like Wayang Party or Singaporedaily where you can just fuck them off in the time it takes to empty your bladder – as their patronage and readership is really dispensable; with these new breed of interlocutors, what we do, they not only better us by a yard – but they have also positioned themselves strategically in Phi Beta Kappa and Ekunaba – and they have considerable influence as they are usually witty and congenial – so it is really like the French court of Versailles – the intellectuals love them, when they are around, they create la atmosphere. If they are not arond both PBK and Ekunaba can really be as exciting as a church on a week day - so let me be very clear Gentlemen, the Guilds have come to a point when they are no longer country bumkins that we could just kick around like peasents; these days, they will have no problems in drawing blood if push comes to shove – if it gets really nasty, they will even organize a boycott against us and even challenge us nail to nail intellectually, harass and make our life miserable in the Confederation – and if that is not enough, they have now successfully managed to lobby for a right of veto in the Presidium– against these realities, even tigers need to sheet their claws when the wolfs howl; we need to give way to the age of the guilds – besides they outnumber us by the thousands and they have reserves of wealth that we can never ever hope to amass – we must always remember, we have no lands, we have no rights to minerals, we have no trade routes to speak of even - we are just nomads and we survive only by our wits  – this is why this new treaty with the four houses of the Guilds will be useful, we can use it to buy us at least 5 years of status quo ante after that there are no guarantees.

As for governments. They are the least of my concerns. They are a very predictable lot. For starters. They are all bent. So when they start telling you and I the good times are back.

It just means ONLY one thing; something is going to go up could be taxes, salaries or something to do with putting more money into some one pocket – that is the story of all politicians in this world.

And it may just mean it is a very good time to sell everything and get into the car and drive off somewhere else - nothing complicated about politicians, that is why politicians are called politicians and not statesmen.

They dont worry me as much as the Guilds – as what they do is so predictable that you have to be really so blind not to see their next move – as for the Guilds, things are not so clear cut. 

All I see is plans within plans – this worries me.

Darkness 2010″

Recent conversation outside “the steps” of the Great Hall just opposite the Imperium of the Brotherhood in Primus Aldentes Prime – captured by an auto-bot crawler – The Brotherhood Press 2010