Will the Irish Crisis cause the end of the EU?
November 26, 2010
(To increase the font size of this essay – hold down the Ctrl key and press +) The Irish bank crisis is starting to look like the proverbial stone that holds up the face of a mountain – remove that one stone and what may very well happen is an avalanche of sorts – implausible? Unlikely? Maybe…then again maybe not.
If there is one thing that I never ever underestimate it is this: the ability of the free market to surprise me Dr Jackal and Mr Hyde style – this economic crisis that looms over Europe should serve as a timely warning to free market adherents and apologist; for ever since I can remember – they have been going on and on about the “wisdom,” of the market – and how the free market can always be trusted to sort things out.
Now the truth is out in the streets – there is no such thing as the wisdom of the markets – it’s like talking about snakes in Norway – the thing doesn’t exist! And if the free market was actually a person; it may not be such a bad idea to shoot him a few times with a tranquilizer gun to prevent him doing more damage.
Looking now at the Irish crisis and considering whether Ireland’s problems will eventually engulf Portugal and Spain, it’s hard if not impossible to put one’s faith in the free market – the way I see it; it’s all about perception – perception drives the market; perception is the market and perception determines what should be the next course of action - I know it should be logic; but it isn’t – it’s all about perception.
That in the nutshell is what the market is all about – anyone who tells you otherwise simply doesn’t know his right from his left foot – as I said, it’s not about fundamentals or even the whole idea of value and right price – it’s all about perception.
And this brings me to the nub of what I have to say about the Irish Banking crisis -as the moment more than 5 out of 10 people have even a flicker of doubt that the Irish crisis is going to overeach to other parts of the EU; that’s really all the excuse the clever money needs to start moving out of EU and what we are likely to get is the end of the EU as we know it.
Sounds implausible…impossible…unlikely…but The remainder of this essay has been withdrawn from general circulation due to the order of Measured Response