Monster El Nino for 2014 and 2015?

April 16, 2014

Meteorologist all over the world are predicting the formation of a possible El Nino phenomenon schedule to hit late this year. The way I see, it’s virtually a done deal la – while everyone seems to be looking out for more signs of confirmation that El Nino is here to stay.

I have absolutely no doubt that it’s already making it’s presence felt – the exceptional dry spell from Jan to April, the weak westerly winds coupled with low percipitation making this the worst monsoon this year all point to dramatic weather patterns that can only be brought forth by El Nino.

The impact of these unfolding events will have a profound effect on my livelihood. None the less, there is a glimmer of hope – as the onset of El Nino means the price of palm oil will have to go up significantly. But what use it this to me, if my tonnage goes down. So the challenge is to somehow beat the curve by capitalizing on this crisis to bump up my yield.

If I can find a way to increase yield in an environment of water scarcity then I would be able to beat the curve. To accomplish this, I would need to throw out everything that I have learnt about traditional farming methods. It’s no bloody good!

Today I instructed my farmhands not to use any herbicides to kill the weeds – the change in strategy is to create a means for the land to retain valuable water. As after May, I expect a prolonged drought that may possibly last till the end of this year. As for the next monsoon rains that is scheduled to fall somewhere around mid September. I have to assume that is fucked and the only thing I am likely to get when the full effects of El Nino takes hold is the perpetual sun bearing down on me.

It is what it is – and this is really as good as it gets. But I am hopeful….if I am cool headed….play my cards right….take calculated risk and with a bit of luck. I am confident that I can still manage to slip right thru the eye of the needle and make it to the land of milk and honey.

We will win!


‘This year just to get my head above the waterline has been a game of cerebral fitness and Russian roulette. So far, I’ve cut all the right moves.

I’ve read the weather righter than right. Done all the right things – its perfect.

But I am not home yet…there is still another 50% that needs to be done and this time, I can’t read the signs at all…it’s just a swirl… like a man who is struggling to understand a dead language…it’s all gibberish. At times, it’s as if I am flying blind, not really knowing whether I will reach that mythical point or smash into a chimney stack. I am not sure, not at all.

If I believe in the idea of God, then it would be easier on me….I reckon. I could get down on my knees and pray….I could leave it all to him and just unburden myself and feel a great weight lifted off my shoulders. But I’ve long since given up on the idea of a creator….so it’s just me and my two guli’s facing off against something that is so big and omnimous that it just scares me all the time.

I am scared because the risk is so big that if I get it wrong even by 10% this time round, I will be so fucked – there is absolutely no room for error…not this time and it feels as if I am putting it all on one number….one spin of the roulette wheel…..for the moment, the ivory ball bounces around, I am hopeful. I have to be…what choice do I have…to believe in the idea that I can still climb up mother natures skirt when she has her back turned and make the summit, plant my flag, take a photo and live to tell about the one that nearly got away….maybe it’s my ego. Yes maybe it is pride that makes me feel the way I do about this – or perhaps I am just uncomfortable with the whole idea that my destiny hinges on just the randomness of pot luck.

Yes…if I make it to the other side. I reckon a huge part of it has to be due to luck….no skill whatsoever… doesn’t even feature…not even a bit. Not when everything is up in the air as it is right now and I am just like a man whose sailing without charts or a compass – but the funny thing is when I make it to the other side. No one is going to believe that luck once featured in the whole equation of success. No one will believe me even if I just told them all the solemn truth, it was all due to luck….and that’s how it has always been with me….I have always been a gambler.

Only you and I will ever know the truth…as for the others, they will see what they want to see and read into things that aren’t there….it’s always been like that….my life that is.’

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