You mean the experts got it wrong that 2014 will be a monster El Nino year?

June 23, 2014

The weather boffins have been predicting since the beginning of this year a monster El Nino is scheduled to hit. But I am not so sure they’re spot on – as the trade winds, which blow from east to west across Indonesia thru to Malaysia have shown hardly any signs of weakening — as they typically do in the run-up to an El Nino event.

The weakening of the trade winds is the one event that presages the El Nino phenomenon – take away that one event and its like a rifle missing the vital firing pin – it’s a dud – result: the chain of event that unleashes the fury of El Nino i.e the upwelling of cold ocean water off the coast of South America to be suppressed, and water temperatures at the surface will warm further, potentially unleashing a litany of effects across the globe all doesn’t happen – it will just be another year like any other year albeit with slightly less rain.

It’s hard if not impossible to predict what the weather will be like from this point onwards. As all the weather experts are really doing is extrapolating data concerning what is likely to pan out based on the last historical precedent of the last major El Nino event that took place in 1997 – that to me is like spinning a coin once and drawing the assumption just because it turned out heads the last time means that it’s going to be heads all the time! Besides weather prediction is riven with vested interest as it plays a preponderant role in price setting in the commodities future’s market and it’s to the interest of some quarters to predict doom and gloom just to bump up the price of coffee, rice, cocoa or any other grown produce.

El Nino is simply too politicized as it is to really draw any definitive conclusions as to the future – it may happen. Then again it may not. It’s very hard to say – neither do I want to play ‘should I cut the red or yellow wire’ any longer by wadding thru weather reports about butterflies flapping their wings in Oslo and causing a thunderstorm somewhere in Pacific shark infested island – I am tired….have been on the saddle the whole day and all I want to do now is put my head on a pillow and dream about Africa as I always do.

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