Who dares wins!

December 28, 2015

Forgive me if I speak plainly. Putin has painted himself and all his oligarchs into a tight corner. He knows it! He is not stupid. The day, he ordered tanks to roll in an annex Crimea. Russia declared a clandestine war with the West. While the occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula proceeded without major difficulties, the ensuing conflict in eastern Ukraine has proven much more difficult to contain, it’s likely to be a second Afghanistan. The way I see it, the west didn’t give Russia anything resembling a choice. The Crimea will always be like Pearl Harbor to the US or Gibraltar to the UK…it’s their own means to secure their realpolitik and geo political interest by sea power….there is no other choice.

On the strategic front, there is no doubt Putin’s decisiveness to annex the Crimea has succeeded in throwing a spanner into the CIA and the Western clandestine services plan to integrate westwards to EU status ship – on the conventional front. Russia has won.

However on the economic front. The sanctions imposed by the west has proved crippling to Russia. Judging from the massive flight of capital and the collapse in the price of oil, the prospects for the Russian economy is likely to degrade further into a full blown recession.

With petroleum and crude revenues comprising over 55% of the state budget, the collapse of the price of oil from a median of high of $100 and above just a few years ago to $35 will bankrupt Russia! Even by the most forgiving estimates, Russia needs the critical $60 to $70 per barrel to balance its budget. Even should by some fluke of miracle occur and prices remain at roughly $60 throughout the whole of 2016, the specter of a full blown recession is in the cards for Putin’s planners. That’s why Putin has no choice but to outflank this economic meltdown by bombing the shit out of all oil refineries from Syria to Iraq and possibly even to the Arabia Gulf. The Saudi’s and Turks smell blood – they want Russian oil to be squeezed out of the world market and Putin is resolved to demolish their designs with endless bombing sorties. But even if Putin can wipe out all the factors at ground zero to engineer an oil surplus, it cannot pre-empt the prospect of Iran emerging out of its pariah nation status and to ramping up its oil production to further depress prices even further. The race to the bottom for oil is inexorable! All this talk about Putin taking the fight to ISIS is just blunderbusting, the Russians have to engineer a oil deficit in the gulf. But let’s face it, their air assets are old and their ordnance is finite, it’s unlikely they can engineer such a Byzantine feat. The Western clandestine services know this is Putin’s Archilles heel that was why they are even prepared to live and let live with the prospects of Iran graduating into the nuclear power club just to keep the oil flowing and creating a surplus in the world market to keep it dead cheap. And when that happens, Putin will be fucked from all directions.

To further exacerbate problems Russian debt is growing at an alarming rate. Back in 2012 to placate the Russian electorate, Putin set in place massive spending on healthcare, education, military research and social services. That decision effectively doubled the debt load of Russia’s regions. The risk of Russia and the entire Caucasus going the way of Greece is very real.

A slim tongue of light for Putin’s nightmarish dystopian Greek tragedy is perhaps making the best out the Minsk accord that has hatch earlier this year between the Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany. But again it’s unlikely that this long shot will hold out the promise of the silver bullet Putin desperately needs to avert a Russian economic meltdown. The Ukrainians are refusing to play ball – they want nothing short of full autonomy. Moscow will say ‘neit’. Hence it’s unlikely the Minsk accord will ever be Putin’s life line that he desperately needs.

With the Minsk accord in the dustbin – new round of economic sanctions can only follow. The US and EU clandestine services seem to be doing exactly that – if this happens western credit to Russia will be cut. Under the existing sanctions, many Russian companies are already either folding up or relocating to the other Balkanized states since there remains no coherent way to borrow money from the West.

The Western clandestine services are planing to cut off Putin’s sphere of influence to accomplish this feat – they need to hit the oligarchs in Putin’s inner circle hard and furious, thereby effectively demolishing any hope of their businesses securing any prospects of long-term funding from western markets.

It is only a matter of time before the US with it’s side kick the IMF will kick out Russia from the SWIFT inter-bank clearing system – if and when that happens Putin’s money men will all be migrating to Singapore or any other country. As it will be impossible to transact intercontinental banking instruments that makes possible trade and commerce.

Russia will go the way of Greece. Combine harvesters will grind to a halt as there is no way to procure spare parts to keep them running. Since there can be no way to secure long term financial instruments to support the convoluted logistic chain necessary to support commercial farming that feeds Russia and the Caucasus – farmers will drink 60% proof vodka and commit suicide en masse, farms will be abandoned. Business will foreclose. No produce will be harvested. No trucks to even transport or warehouse produce. The shelves will be empty. There will be anarchy and the whole of Russia will be controlled by warlords like during the tumultuous period when the KMT and the Communist were vying for power only to create a power vacuum….what we are witnessing here gentlemen is a one in a life time opportunity to be rich!

This is happening now! It is real….opportunity is knocking!

The future is in Russia!

—————————————————————————–

‘Taxi driver who used to be a financial analyst asked me once when I took his cab, how do I be rich? I told him go to the most fucked up place in the whole planet, where people have to regularly dodge bullets just to cross the streets and when you call the police, it’s so thoroughly fucked that when the men with no necks eventually appear carrying semi autos, you don’t even know whether they’re the good or bad guys. So fucked up that when you turn on the faucet, shit instead of potable water spews out. So completely fucked up beyond all recognition that it’s like one those drinking holes smack in the middle of the edge of the universe that Luke Skywalker and Obi Wan Kenobi in Star Wars version 1 went to when they were looking for a smuggler to escape from that shit hole….start an enterprise there.

This taxi driver called me a mad man and accused me of trying to get him killed. He went on to mention what I just recommended to him was hazardous to his well being. I told him, you’re sitting in a chair eight hours a day and driving a cab….are you telling me that ain’t dangerous? Your back is going to turn to jelly. Either that or you’re primed for type two diabetes before forty. You’re picking up people who you hope aren’t crazy or had too much to drink and you’re telling that’s not dangerous! You could even lying down in one of those deck loungers in a five star resort and a coconut the size of a bowling ball falls down and misses you by two inches – are you telling me that ain’t dangerous?

Took another cab. Another cabbie asked me exactly the same question – I told him exactly the same thing. He mulled over it – soon he picked a spot on the map where everything was completely fucked up beyond all recognition. Bought a one way ticket and poof he was gone. I am not saying his life was easy. Nope! It was hard as tungsten nails into concrete with your bare fist, but this man persevered. He adapted and overcame. Eventually he discovered his El Derado!

You see this what they never teach you Harvard Business School – where there is crisis, there will always be loads of opportunities. It stands the litmus test of reason – after all who the hell for instance is going to send a safety or environmental safety uncle to conduct a surprise spot check on your enterprise if the country is so fucked up that everything is topsy turvy – do you think anyone even gives two shits about whether the people who work for you are wearing hard hats or steel capped boots if no one can even walk down to the news agent to buy a packet of cigarettes without getting shot by a sniper with a full metal jacketed round! Think! Use your mentally!

Danger can always be managed, but my point is the entry cost for starting enterprises in countries where everything is either broken or falling to bits is so incredibly low that your chances of failing is virtually zero – for example if you go to the Ukraine and propose to start an enterprise, the authorities would probably agree to every term that you ask for in your unsolicited bid proposal for a land concession…fact: they have no bargaining power! Fact: if they say no, the fall back position is full scale starvation Fact: you have never had it so good before! – the best part is you’re never going to have to compete with the MBA types or the people who are so accustomed to playing it safe, they spend 99.9% of their time within the four walls of a five star hotel. Those people are allergic to those places.

The best part is there will always be a lot of room for improvisation and you could just make it all up as you go along….so tell me how is it possible to fail?

You see I still believe in the idea of the age of discovery – I still believe in El Derado!’

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