How will the demise of BN affect Singapore?

April 1, 2016

Will Najib & Co Barisan Nasional Coalition Party lose the next GE?

It ALL depends on the price of oil – if within the next two years, the price of crude per barrel stays above the median average of USD$75-$80, it’s very likely BN will win technically – due to a large part to East Malaysia.

If the price of oil dips below the median average of USD$75-$80 / UMNO may hedge it bets to garner enough cross votes to form a government. At some point they would have to seriously consider an alliance with PAS. Or as impossible as it may sound with DAP.

If Najib & Co goes with PAS. Pandora’s box will open – and the whole political, economic, social and cultural framework of Malaysia will be transformed very rapidly thru a process that I choose to describe only as Arabification, especially the Northern states and along the rice belt. The effects will be lasting and irreversible / in the long term the political elite of UMNO will eventually be hollowed out by PAS. As since the later derive their moral authority to govern directly from the mandate of the maker, something will have to give and on the balance of probability – whatever emerges will NEVER be the UMNO we are familiar with prior to the 2018 general elections.

If this happens, Singaporean diplomats and politicians will likely experience a lot of headaches along with uncomfortable spikes in high blood pressure. Short prognosis: no good. Lose / lose.

However if UMNO decides to form an alliance with DAP / curiously the outcome modeled using competitive game theory suggest the payout would be significantly better for BN. BN will be able eat up DAP with plenty of room to spare. The racial vacuum in the form of non existent Chinese votes in the politically anaemic MCA will also be happily revivified. But since DAP and BN have a long history of mistrust, enmity and bad blood – it remains to be seen whether these two political actors can set aside their differences to come and work together.

Should DAP and BN form an alliance – the status quo ante will remain largely intact in Malaysia and all will be well for Singapore.

However the prime determinant that will eventually shape the final outcome of the political landscape in the next general elections will pivot exclusively on the price of oil for the next two years.

Oil is king.

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‘Many things can go very wrong in Malaysia in one blink of an eye these days. That’s because there is a lot of disillusioned and discontented people who are all creating a lot of nervous energy.’

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