Will Hilary and Trump support the TPP

August 2, 2016

As much as both Presidential contenders appear publicly to be dead against the TPP.

Eventually the mathematics of reality will compel them to reexamine their respective stance…..this does not mean the TPP is good.

No! As I mentioned it’s mucho bad. Neither does this suggest it’s a superior logic to organize trade and commerce….it’s far from desirable.

By classifying it as a ‘mathematical reality’ what I mean to say is the TPP remains one of most cost effective strategy to box up an emerging China, Russia and possibly India….it’s so economical and efficient.

When faced with such an wonder weapon. I think it’s fair to say most people will have plenty of incentives to readjust their beliefs to accomodate this reality. This especially the case when the pay outs are so big and juicy…this doesn’t alter the reality….the TPP is still a very evil plan hatched by fat cat corporations to retain their primacy by unnecessarily ritualizing how business is done….coupled to that, the US can rein in China in the troublesome Spratlies on the cheap without having to wage a financial debilitating cold war involving long term commitment of men and material to the South China Seas theatre….I think it is this strategic aspects of the geo political payouts to the US in the long term, that will convince both Hilary and Trump to eventually support the TPP.

Of course they will both make minor tweaks here and there and even choose to call this newly adjusted agreement something else besides the TPP….but in essence, it’s the TPP.

The public would be hoodwinked and kept in the dark again….and wouldn’t even know what’s really going on.

I think it is premature the believe the TPP is dead…if it’s dead, it’s only dead for now.

The only counter strategy is to keep delaying it’s passage thru congress – using time as a weapon….to keep on forcing the issues of having to renegotiate the terms etc etc….and hope that the RCEP will some how be able to come alongside the TPP.

————————————————————-

‘There are two ways to wage war – the most obvious is to do so with guns and warships. An oblique method is to leverage on economic power. Since the US is a dying hegemon – it cannot compete against the emerging economic and military might of China. The demand on men and materiale to prosecute on the latter agenda would bankrupt the US and their allies. Hence the TPPA is a US economic strategy to maintain its sphere of influence on Asia. To me the pivot is premised on nothing other than the primitive 1960’s US Cold War’s containment strategy specifically aimed at Russia and China and possibly India.

The question is will the TPP be able to do a good job at containment?

I believe so and this is what makes it such a compelling strategy that accounts for it’s allure to both US politicians and military planners – but I also believe whatever advantages gained will be quickly eroded by plunging the whole of Asia into an unnecessary arms race. It would not be an exaggeration to state categorically if the TPP comes into effect it will likely be a repeat of the ill conceived US oil embargo on Japan circa 1938. This we all know was the causal link that eventually compelled the Japanese to seriously consider war as the only sensible recourse to redress the materiale deficit by invading the Philipine archipelago for oil…Manchuria for iron ore…Malaya for rubber and tin…and present day Indo China for Bauxite and zinc….so to me this TPP is a very risky confrontational strategy that is likely to throw the whole of Asia into a precipitous arms race.

It’s high risk! As it assumes China will back down! But I don’t believe she will as the TPP is intrinsically beggar thy neighbor strategy – so what pay out is there for China to back down from a head on confrontation? After all she has got all the military assets in the Paracels and Spratly’s to blockade the one third of the Pacific stretching from Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam to Visaya’s in the Philippines…..China if confronted with economic ruin will go to war!

Even I will go to war…if someone is silly enough to throw sand into my rice bowl! After all what do I have to lose…so as you can see this is not a strategy without very clear and present dangers.

I don’t believe my assessment of the geo political realities are in any way very far off the proverbial mark…No!

If anything judging from the speed and commitment of the Chinese in responding to this inexonorable economic iron curtain coming down by weaponizing the Paracels and Spratly’s…it only goes to demonstrate how dangerous this silly game is.’

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: