There is only one way to stop the TPP

August 17, 2016

In my assessment the TPP cannot be stopped…but having said that it is possible to delay it’s passage thru congress. But to accomplish this, millions is required. As many ordinary people are still ignorant about the corrosive effects of the TPP…

This is only possible if I go to Rome and appeal directly to the Laanstrad – only they have the network and unlimited resources to move mountains with the stealthiness of the unseen hand.

The TPP can only be delayed. But that is all that is required …to throw a spanner into the works to delay it is as good as killing it for a couple more years…at least. Meanwhile this widget space will allow the Chinese to firm up their counter solution in the form of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement that would include all ten ASEAN member states as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.

The overlapping memberships – over half of the TPP members would also be in RCEP – would help mitigate any negative effects for China.

I must go to Rome and appeal to the Laanstrad.

————————————————————–

‘Obama will of course try to get the TPP passed in Congress during the quiet sitting this November. But he will fail. As the prevailing sentiment is against him. Besides if Obama pushes too hard, all he would be doing is sabotaging Hillary’s campaign – that’s a calculated risk.

If Hillary wins. The TPP will be approved within the first hundred days of her administration. Naturally it will be adjusted to take stock of the negative sentiments and even repackaged as something completely different, but in essence it will be the TPP. Hillary is not stupid. She understands both the economic and strategic value of having a pivot in Asia to counter both the economic and geo political ascendency of China.

If Trump wins. Despite all his anti TPP rhetoric. He too will eventually approved the passage of the TPP within the first hundred days of his administration. Assuming Trump is stupid. His advisors are not and they will underscore the economic and geo political necessity of the pivot in Asia very forcefully…this is almost 100% in my assessment – as it is a very compelling argument not only economically, geo politically, but most importantly the TPP is able to accomplish militarily what could never be logistically possible in terms of men and materiale by the US and their allies militarily. For them to establish Pax Americana in the Asia Pacific theater they would need another Guam or Subic Bay and at least four additional carriers to what the seventh fleet currently has in it’s inventory and at least five divisions with two in tow as reserves…that’s a military impossibility…not even if Australia and Japan steps in!

So TPP is a very cost competitive wonder weapon to shift the sphere of influence within Asia from currently China to the US with one stroke of the pen….by doing very little except maybe rewriting the rules of the game.

The Japanese are of course very bullish even if it threatens the status quo of their agri sector. As this economic shift makes economic revival that more likely…that at least is what the economist in MITI envision. The TPP will in addition bestow benefits to Vietnam especially by bolstering their textile industry. But besides these few beneficiaries…I don’t see any obvious benefits for the rest of the signatories economically or militarily by shifting chairs closer to the US, except maybe putting China in a steel straight jacket.

Truth is not many signatories have a choice…either they sign up. Or they are cut off from their primary markets!

What is worrisome is the Chinese thus far remain quite clueless how to respond coherently to the TPP….they seem to be at loss as to how to respond, except maybe militarizing the Spratly’s and Paracells.

So it is this aspect of the TPP that will appeal very strongly to whoever becomes the next president of the US…this is the mathematics of statecraft. Anyone who tells you different has a very poor grasp of the machinations of power and politics.’

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: