Singapore should not be seen to antagonize the Chinese….

August 23, 2016

In the South China seas…To me it is very natural for China to regard the western Pacific as her backyard. In probably the same way, the US regards Pearl Harbor. The Russians the Crimea and the British, Gibraltar.

China has ever right to regard the United States as an interfering agent in the south China seas island disputes – all indications and intelligence leads me to suggest: China is prepared to go all the way.

As I believe, one aspect of the calculations are based on the assumption the US and her allies are a declining power, unable to marshal either the collective resolve regionally or men and materiale to wage a protracted war in the South China Seas….should the current rules of engagement fall apart.

By occupying the Spratly’s and weaponizing them like a porcupine with a pheltora of missiles, China is trying to lure the United States and her allies into a long and debilitating war of attrition like Stalingrad to the German 6th Army by precipitating a classical Richardson arms race….any country that is dumb enough to be allied with the US will be sucked into this crazy arms race and suffer cancer of the wallet on a Byzantine scale.

The Chinese have I believed calculated (quite correctly) the US military especially the Navy specifically the seventh fleet is already stretched beyond it’s operational limits. As a consequence it’s theatre strategy is to further exacerbate this constraint by forcing the US and their allies to commit more hardware and men and materiale into the South China Seas theater. The cost for China to pursue a war of attrition when compared to the US and her allies is negligible. The same cannot be said about the US who seem to be basing their entire efficacy of its deterrent effect on a mix of carriers and missile system spread out from the Sea of Japan to Australasia.

Granted the US deterrent strategy that relies exclusively on leverage on carrier doctrine has been successful in the Pacific for 80 years – but in light of significant improvements in Chinese missile tech combined with the reality the rest of the world may not be inclined to join the US like they did in Iraq to fight the Chinese, it is doubtful US carrier doctrine alone will be able to perpetuate US hegemony in the South China Seas.

China is using the South China Sea islands as the means to bankrupt the US war making machinery into obselescence – The islands from the Spratly’s to the Paracels are by themselves quite useless devoid whatsoever of obvious strategic utility …in my assessment they do not seem to fulfill any objective Chinese geo political agenda. Rather it seems – the primary objective of China’s strategy is to tie up valuable military hardware in the Pacific theater thereby thinning out the US military sphere of influence elsewhere – this is obvious a grand Sino Russian strategy to put the United States into a steel box!

If the China gamble proves to be correct, many countries allied to the US doctrine of containing China military will end up being sucked into a black hole where they too will have to spend a lot of money on arms along with aligning their domestic and foreign policy to be more anti Chinese.

This is why where possible Singapore should remain neutral and not get entangled in stupid things that does not involve her!

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‘I see the affairs of the world coldly without an undue attachments. I don’t for instance support the Chinese merely because I am Chinese. No! If I appear to favor their point of view it’s only because I am conscious of the historicism that may account for their acts and omissions…but whatever it is one reality holds true, the US is a diminishing empire, it’s really at it’s final leg of it’s grand swan dive…that accounts for her desperation to hold on to the status quo.

Nothing unusual there…only that too will fail. It’s a mathematical certainly.

As it’s not possible to contain China anymore than one could possibly deny the existence of a whole continent or wish it to sink into oblivion somewhere in the featureless Pacific…this notion of trying to control China to me is very very stupid….it’s akin to talking about snakes in Norway or how many angels can one manage to fit into the head of a needle…now if you happen to be ignorant about Norwegian fauna or believe in angels…I guess it’s possible to have to a conversation on those subjects…only just because you’re talking earnestly about them, doesn’t by itself increase either the probability of success or can somehow transform implausibilities into reality – fact is China will grow and it will dominate and even come to it’s own under it’s own terms…that is reality…this whole notion of trying to create a supranational cage to contain China militarily via the seventh fleet or economically thru the machinization of the TPP is in my opinion very very stupid.’

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