Analysis-of-post-malaysian-elections-2018 – Part 2

May 12, 2018

Q: What do you think is the primary concern of the newly minted government in Putrajaya? Will Najib be jailed soon?

A: In the greater scheme Najib to me has always been a red herring. A distraction. Scale and priority I believe is important and the question here is how does the new government go about balancing the federal deficit along with getting a handle on the macroeconomics of Malaysia.

Q: What do you see as the main economic challenges facing Malaysia?

A: In my personal assessment the Najib administration did an excellent job in trying to get a handle on the economy. I personally feel very little credit had been given to him on this area, but if you look at it in detail. Many of the economic policies Najib rolled out was historical, for example the ending of subsidise on staples has been around since Tunku Abdul Rahman that was done with. Another was the roll out of GST to hedge against fluctuations in oil and commodities. These measures certainly proved painful for the rakyat, but it in my opinion they were well thought out and necessary.

But now there is talk of scraping GST to removing toll for the use of interstate highways right down to renegotiating agreements on long term loans from China. At this point in time its very hard to say what is merely ‘invitation to treat’ statements made specifically to win votes and what might really be real.

I think a run in period would have to take place first and as time goes by all these that I have mentioned will get clearer.

Q: What is the consequences if the newly minted government doesnt get a handle quickly on the economy?

A: The ringgit will depreciate in value because its sold down. Investor confidence will nose dive followed by capital flight. The federal deficit will balloon even more because most of the loans were pegged to US currency. The economy will collapse. Inflation will sharpen and there would be revolution.

What I have just described is the mini skirt executive summary of why I believe the Malaysian economy is the crux Of the issue for the new government. As for all this preoccupation with Najib that is for lesser minds.

Perhaps I should remind you Kompf, the very serious men who make up the Interspacing Guild are not longer pimple ridden kids who are content to eat pot noodle and play fantasy computer games. Many have grown up. Got married. Started enterprises. They all becone old men Kompf.

Tell me Kompf do you think these serious men of the IMG would decide to send out a skull order issued directly from the Council of the wise for me to generate a report on the Malaysian elections merely to just to mentally masturbate? No Kompf.

Q: The world press seem to be heralding the win of PH as a beacon of hope and a warning to authoritarinism. What is your take?

A:It is too early to say whether PH is salvation or perdation. For all we know if you pose the same question in two years, PH may well be more repressive and authoritarian than anything we have seen in the past history of Malaysia.

I think its very easy to be lulled into the illusion mahathir is a sweet 93 year old statesman. Be that as it may. All I have to say is Mahathir cannot escape his own reality. When we ask ourselves where did race based politics, rubber rule of law, gerrymandering, money politics, political patronage and elitism and all the ills we associate with Najib. It was all seeded by Mahathir.

Like I said, Mahathir can never escape his reality. So i hope if you dont mind should I decide not to go with the crowd and just sit this out and watch.

Q: What would make you change your mind about Mahathir.

A: For words to be credible it has to be backed by action. As it is Anwar is still in jail. I for one do not understand why there is a need to delay his release. I personally think more Malaysians if they are genuinely interested in real and not cosmetic change should focus on this and not allow their emotions to run wild. This is not a Korean soap opera. This is very serious five chili power and politics and I personally would like to see Anwar installed as PM within the shortest possible time before even considering uncorking the champagne.

Q: What can Singapore learn from this episode?

A: I think the lessons are very clear to the Singaporean custodians of power and the civil service. The organs of the state arent the personal rotweillers of those who are appointed to power along with ‘I am just following orders’ isnt a defense. They dont need a dirty farmer whose only good for shovelling dung to spell it out for them. Trust me it’s very clear.

I feel sorry for those who abused their power. As Malaysian prisons are like time machines. After one year those crooks will look like the walking dead.

Q: Many in the guilds were surprised by the uncanny accuracy of your prediction. Can you share excerpts of how you conducted your own survey.

A: Yes. I dont mind sharing my methodology. But I have to be clear. The method I deployed could really only be used in this one GE and perhaps no other. As this is the first time in Malaysian history that the election commission barred all political broadcast in the provinces and restricted them strictly to towns and cities.

One day when I attended one of these ceramah’s (political rallies). I had to park my car quite a distance. So i walked and in so doing I noticed by sheer epiphany that some cars had clean and spotless tire bays while others were muddied. Now cars with mud in the bays are all from the kampungs, its a function of having to transverse laterite roads and this time of the year it is impossible to keep the tire bays spotless. Only city cars can do this.

So I paid some nerdy schoolkid to come up with an app and distributed it to a network of jaga kereta boys. In Malaysia these are kids who get a few cents to guard over your car. All they had to do was count how many cars had dirty and clean tire bays.

After a while when I had critical mass. I noticed the pattern did not gel with what was been broadcasted in the media. For example in the case of BN rallies, the number of cars from kampungs were low to very low. While for PH rallies they were high.

So this is just one of the models. My point is if you want to build up an accurate picture about how this or that is panning out, then it certainly doesnt pay to just listen without bothering to interrogate on the how’s and why’s. It makes far more sense to ask, can you share with me your model?

The problem is when a SPH journalist says, 9 out of 10 Singaporeans agree with anti fake law legislation. And should you ask, can you share with me your model? They get angry and defensive, but I dont have any problems opening up my black box and sharing my methodology.

We can all learn from each other.

Q: How could the entire BN machinery be blindsided to such an extent that they didnt even see this coming their way. Najib even said on record that this time round BN would improve on their last performance in 2013 to garner a stronger mandate.

A: There is no word for this in English, but the Japanese refer to this mind trap as senshoubyou.

Q: Is there anything about Mahathir & Co that you consider positive?

A: Of course. Mahathir seems to be one of those rare fellows who appreciate the practicality of the safari or bush jacket. It is a very airy, functional and ideal for the tropics. Recently I was turned away from a formal function as I was consider not properly dressed despite sporting a cravat. On other occasions when I am just standing in a hotel, strangers who throw their car keys at me and say ridicolous things like ‘try not to scratch it!’ I think from now onwards that would not be a problem any longer.

Who says I dont appreciate Mahathir?

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