Why smiles can only turn to growls in the brand new PH Malaysia

Q: The other guilds besides the IMG have asked – why is there so much concerntrated effort to find out what will happen in the new Malaysia?

A: I can understand why the other cosca’s feel the need to ask this question. Allow me to just say this, the motto of the Interspacing Metal Guilds goes as such, those who can see the future will control the course of history. For 2,000 space years this has essentially being the raison of the IMG. Now if anyone feels that all this focus on Malaysia is a great diffusion of energy. That is merely their opinion. All I have to say is some people dont see it that way. Allow me to explain succintly. If let us say you happen to have invested $1 million in any company listed in the KLSE which has links to Najib, UMNO or BN. Today half of that capitalised value has been wiped out in the stock market. The bursa saham. Now let us assume you have reliable information just the day before the polls that BN will lose. And should you sell your entire BN portfolio of shares and bought firms linked to Mahathir or PH, that would roughly double your money. We are not talking months or even years. This is merely days and hours. So Kompf, you are smart. I am sure you can juxtapose what i have said to an infinite variety of scenarios everything from whether the HSR project will still end in Singapore and increase real estate prices from Boon Lay to red hill to whether the TPP will take off or crash.

Q: Many people are perplex as to why you seem to regard the PH win with such negativity. It is as if you much preferred BN to be in power.

A: The short answer is that Malaysia is not out of the woods yet. Is the rakyat happy that Najib & Co has been booted out. Yes. But Kompf the public cannot be trusted to make good and sensible decisions. What is disturbing to me at so many levels is how so few think tanks, journalist and even analyst have consistently failed to factor in Mahathir’s election victory was in a very part premised on the populist pledges to scrap Malaysia’s new goods and services tax (GST) and to bring back the subsidies from gas to cooking oil. Naturally these pledges are popular with voters, but they dont necessarily make sense. Neither are they sound and sensible promises either. Not when you consider how consumption tax and putting an end to subsidies was made specifically to strengthen Malaysia’s public finances, cutting its fiscal deficit and broadening its revenue base.

Q: I am sorry to interrupt you…but what is wrong with the rakyat being happy (cut off)

A: If you are really sorry to interrupt me. Then dont interrupt me. What is wrong with the rakyat being happy? Happiness doesnt maketh an economy or for that matter add or subtract from the wealth of a nation. Besides you have not being listening to me. People dont have good decisions. Again let us ask the question. This time just to indulge you Kompf. Are they happy? Yes I imagine they are. But why are they happy Kompf.

For one you can say the rakyat sees it as big time pay back day. So they feel that justice has been done and a wrong has been righted.

But what you need to understand is that even if they eventually put Najib & Co away for ten good years that doesnt alter the fact, the Malaysian economy is currently in a very precarious position. It has been in the danger zone in my considered and studied opinion for the last four years. When you look around the asean neighborhood. You will find that virtually every single country in the region has figured out its strenghts and weakness to put all its chips on a niche inorder to reap the economy of scale of skill specialisation. Singapore is a finance cum shipping hub and its growing new nodes with its bilateral g to g free trade agreements; Thailand have put all their tom yam into being the new detroit of Asia; Vietnam means to conquer the high streets with quality and cost competitive OEM garments. Even Bangladesh has grand plans to be the Amsterdam of the Indian ocean by focussing on shipping and port facilities. But tell me what is the next big thing for Malaysia?

The biscuit tin is empty. Except maybe to depend on oil. And we all know very well that is a sunset sector. Even the Arabs these days are considering nuclear to generate electricity.

Kompf that is why it is very sad for me. I see all these things so very clearly. Perhaps clearer than anyone else. I may well be autistic, but I am uncannily good at connecting the dots.

Truth is like this Kompf, look around. You see smiling faces now. The mood is euphoric even with bubbles of optimism. But all this will not last Kompf.

It will not.

Q: Many Singaporeans believe that what happens in Malaysia will have absolutely no impact on their lives. Do you believe this to be true?

A: These are very stupid people. My advice is avoid these category of people because if you dont take my advice and continue to mix with them. Your brain will shrink to a size of a pea. By every conceivable definition, Malaysia will always be important to Singapore by virtue of proximity and shared culture. I dont know how to explain this except to say let us say if the high speed rail from KL to Singapore is cancelled. Just imagine how this would impact not only how people move from A to B from a transmigration standpoint, but there will also be significant shifts in how skills and labor will move around the region and all this will ultimately have an impact on the wealth of a nation. So if Singaporeans believe they can consign what happens in Malaysia to a shoebox and slide it under their bed. I say these are very stupid people.

The difference between us and them is this. If a lecturer in NTU or the LKY school makes a wrong call. He can still go to work on Monday. But if we get it wrong, then it will affect livelihoods and you could even say we will be set back considerably. So we always need to be spot on. We are not like the Singapore government where if they get it all wrong, they can just pretend that it was not really important and appear to move right on.

Q: What do you think about the HSR from KL to Singapore?

A: On the 3rd of this month. I told everyone the probability of it going thru on the PH win was nil. I see no compelling reason to alter my summary.