On the subject of seeing the future

.In early February when I told everyone that Putin would not hesitate to rumble every major city in the Ukraine to impose command and control. Many said, there he goes again…that autistic guy must have forgotten to take his daily medication for a least a whole month to come out with such shit! But there were many businessmen who took what I said seriously and they cut of their positions with the oligarchs and some with Russia completely…..when I was asked – how can you be so sure? I replied – Putin didn’t just wake up one day and decide to invade Ukraine. He could have had this idea as far back as 2004 just after the orange revolution. But he wasn’t sure about the skill of arms of the Russian armed forces, so he tested them out in Syria and that not only supplied Putin with the confidence that his idea could be realised, but that he could score a win. This was how I saw it…..Now the prevailing assessment is this – Putin has overextended his forces and they are losing momentum. To me, this is a flawed assesment. The Russians never expected it to be easy. Maybe some elements within the army believed they could mount a lightning war, but within the core of the planning. A long drawn out war of attrition was never in doubt. Finally Western sanctions will only push Putin to double down on his plan conquer the ukraine…..if the West is smart, they will craft a face saving way for Russia to cease the advance and work towards détente.