Careful what you wish for

October 22, 2022

The question few have asked relating to the Ukrainian War is this – what if Russia loses? But before one even proceeds to answer this question. Maybe its a good idea to scale what exactly is lost, its not just territory or for that matter the failed ambition of taking over the Ukraine and incorporating it into the Russian Federation. As what’s actually lost is much more, its the fact that Russia is no longer a reliable security guarantor any longer because many now realise its military is simply no longer a credible force. You don’t even need to be a superpower to take it down. It’s the lost of prestige that comes from Russia’s aspiration to be a great Slavic empire. The lost of its economic prospects to ever join the West as an equal. And the lost list goes on and on. So the next question is if the Russians lose this war, are they just going to disappear into oblivion? I don’t think it’s that straightforward. It’s not even like that in real life gangster turf fight either. I mean if someone is going to lose it all like Scarface and to defeated in such a manner where they don’t even have one shred of dignity, then tell me what’s to stop them from not using a weapon of mutual destruction?

The answer is this – there’s no compelling reason for them NOT to resort to nuclear weapons. At that point in the game. they have absolutely nothing to lose. Sometimes when what you wish for comes true 1 to 1. I think you should lose sleep.

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