Replacing brake bulb on 2010 Fortuner

What r the chances of a nuclear war in 2024?

Many people will tell you the chances of a nuclear war remains steadfastly at zero. In my assessment this is at best a happy-go-lucky summary. Personally I am worried simply bc the Russians don’t ever seem to do strategic ambiguity (unlike the US and their reliable allies who bluff and fudge around all the time). Strategic ambiguity to cut to the chase is simply saying one thing and doing something completely different. It was a term that gained notoriety during the Nixon administration in the early 70’s when Henry Kissinger used its prototypal version, then called constructive ambiguity to manage the complexity of middle east Realpolitik. Essentially constructive or strategic ambiguity was Kissingers way of using alot of words to say absolutely nothing or saying one thing and doing the opposite. In summary SA proved disastrous in US foreign policy…..these days SA is used by France and the UK to threaten the Russians….the problem here is simply this. The Russians have made it plain and clear that they will have no hesitation to use atomics if very specific strategic and tactical redlines are breached. Such as NATO putting boots in the Ukraine or allowing the Ukrainians to launch long range rocket attacks from NATO countries. Despite these warnings by Russia, European politicians such a Macron and Cameron continue to play a deadly game of chicken with Putin.

What three atomic juggling idiots dont realise is simply this. The Russians dont ever do strategic ambiguity, its doesnt even feature in their foreign policy…….that simply means if NATO pushes Russia to the edge of one of those specified red lines……a full scale nuclear armageddon will be unleashed by the Russians.

A nuclear war is now not a just theoretical possibility….the threat is now very real and present.

Today – Fertilized 6 May 2024

85 bags @ 0 – P

Good Day!

Glute Medius

The end of an era – The end of Tactical Aviation

Since the Pearl Harbor attack by the Japs eighty n a bit years ago, the role of tactical aviation has featured as the tip of the spear by modern militaries. The war plane in its infinite iterations, be it the multirole support to the lone interceptor cum fighter has proven time n again to be the indisputable battlefield equilizer…..curiously in the Russo Ukraine war, the role of tactical aviation is so muted that one cannot but wonder whether it has entirely bowed out to the advent of new drone and missile technology.

In mid April 24 when Iran launched an unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israel over the weekend that included hundreds of missiles and drones launched primarily from its own soil, what’s telling was that hardly any tactical aviation featured at all from both sides….it was essentially a drone and rocket exchange with missiles being fired from faraway and interdicted by missiles. This should prompt the perceptive amongst you to ask – might we be witnessing the end of super expensive war planes n the dawn of cheap mass produced drones n rockets as the game changer in the modern battlefield n if this is true…..is mankind now standing in the cusp of a new dawn, where just as the club bowed out to the sword that made possible industrial war….are we now witnessing the first emerald shoots of a new dawn when clever machines can only wage war on machines…as for man. Yes, I am sure he is still there somewhere in the background….only that somewhere has to be very far removed from the battlefield.

Kung Fu Panda kick! – The Art of how to raise a stink by highlighting Nordstream

Brilliant Chinese diplomatic move!

Why did Blinken REALLY visit China? – A study in engineering mass consent

We dont live in an information democracy. We should….but regrettably we dont. Truth is the information we regularly consume is heavily massaged and processed just exactly like the modern food ecology. Those who know the art of power and politics realise this truism only too well. They realise that the mass majority of humans are very far from rational and level headed. That’s why they pushed Brexit……they even know fears and anxities can be heightened by skillfully crafting a believable narrarive n it matters very little whether that story coheres with anything resembling the truth….the real story why Blinken flew to China has little whatsoever with mending ties with the Communist. On the contrary its all abt engineering consent by manipulating the narrative….understand this! The Russo Ukrainian war is not going well for either the US or their reliable allies. Infact we may well be witnessing at this very moment the beginning of the end for the current Zelensky regime. This should prompt the perceptive reader to ask – what will happen the day after Russian tanks roll into Kiev? Many will begin to ask….but you told us we were winning! You even suggested that we should terminate all negotiated settlements with the Russians and fight on! So what the US and their reliable allies need now is some cock n bull narrative on why they lost the Ukraine war! To complete the narrative the US n their reliable allies need a scapegoat….now you know why Blinken flew to China.

The importance of being able to make things!

In the 80’s when business academics the likes of Michael Porter and Gary Hamel (today he is still talking shit albeit with a negotiated U turn!) started to define organizational success by promoting global outsourcing based on cost and nothing else, one metric which they completely disregarded was the intrinsic capability of a nation to manufacture stuff from the ground up. Eventually leaders such as Magret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan took to this idea to its illogical end of creating ‘competitive advantage’ by shuttering the entire manufacturing base along with systematically destroying the notion of the tradesman and the apprentice…..fast forward 40 years later many Western and even a few Asian countries simply dont have the foundational skills to make anything meaningful any longer….they can code and perhaps even write elegant software, but when it comes to the nut and bolt skills of how to build a something from the ground up that sort of knowledge no longer exist any more……its gone with one fart.

How to Brine

Will USD$61 Billion help Ukraine?

The question you need to urgently ask yourself is how would a Russian brigade level planner take this news? Well either you cut it, it will resemble this – time is now of the essence. That’s to say the longer the Russians take to prosecute on their objectives, the harder it will be in a month or so when the Ukrainians will start receiving the ‘aid’ which will essentially comprise of weapons, weapons and weapons. So if you happen to be a Russian planner. You would do the following, move your crack troops to the front instead of keeping them in reserve. Instruct your armor n motorised brigades to spearhead enough salients in the front to engage the enemy 24/7.So what we are likely to see in these few weeks is an intensification of the speed along with ferocity to push forward by the Russian before the aid can take effect on the Ukrainian military.

This is what any intelligent planner would do…….this is NOT theoretical….if you really want to test out my theory, just count how many towns, villages and city fall within the next month.

Is China helping Russia in the Ukraine war?

Those who believe China is not rendering technical, military n economic assistance to Russia r simply naive. Two weeks ago, Janet Yellen flew to Beijing to caution China that if she gave any help the US n their reliable allies will not heistate to impose trade sanctions on China. China’s response to Yellen was go fuck yourself! Now anyone with two brain cells would surmise from this episode a couple of salient points. The first is that the Chinese no longer see the value to engage the US and their reliable allies constructively any longer. Flowing from this assumption, they must have already come to the conclusion either way the US n their reliable allies will impose sanctions on China. Hence his has already been factored into the calculation when it comes to the subject of whether China should cooperate with Russia. The second is China assumes US trade sanctions are likely to intensify. This is especially heightened with Trump running for the Presidency. Given that this is the case, they don’t see any point to diffuse the tension as either way, they will be sanctioned any way. It makes far more sense for them to forge new trade links with the Russian Federation and their reliable allies. Thirdly the Chinese view the Russian partnership as strategic, not only economically as Russia is both a market for Chinese goods n services, but they also sense a military and technological dimension that can feed into their long term technological innovation and security needs. Now that the US Senate has approved the $61 billion aid to Ukraine, it is certainty going to make the Ukrainian military more muscular. So the question arises will China continue to support Russia in the background of a probable military escalation in Ukraine? To me I don’t see how China can back away from supporting Russia. I think what many geo politics analyst don’t factor in is simply this – the fate of China n Russia are inextricably one of the same rrality, that’s to say if Russia should fail militarily and economically, then the same fate will befall China n vice versa. What we are beginning to see is an emergence of a symbiotic economic n military relationship forming between Russia n China. You can actually register this in the general nervousness in the Indian psyche. To me the Indians are very much like the canary in the mine, if you really want to gauge how deep the relationship of Russia and China….all you have to do is be very observant of Indian trade and foreign policy. Currently the indians are very nervous because they share a fractious border with China and they always get anxious when Sino Russo relations warm up because it all has an effect on their classical enemy which is Pakistan. Hence lately, there’s a very pronounce military shift by the Indians to the US n EU position. The indians may not state this position officially, but this doesn’t alter the fact that such a pivot is occuring in earnest. Now this is just an illustration of how sands shift in the geo political chessboard (to be continued).

Glute Med Kickback

Finding YOUR line in life

The story of my life can be summarized into two relatively boring volumes. The first part of my life resembled a pin ball being bounced around without any purposeful meaning. The second part is the story of how I found my line, or maybe IT found me….but once this mythical line became me n I for my part became it….there was no stopping me.

What I am trying to say is this….it takes time for one to know ones elemental calling. This I term – the falcon hears the falconer….we aren’t robots. Each of us have our respective reasons and seasons when we will discover our calling.

Hence. Sometimes (not all the time even I admit) when we experience hard times or simply find ourselves banging a wall with our heads with that all too familiar feeling that we r like square pegs in a world that only favors round holes…..we need to be especially kind to ourselves n not fall into the worlds trap that something is fundamentally wrong with us. Truth is simply this we just need a longer time than others to find our line.

Why knowing this so important? Because not knowing this kernel of wisdom is to miss out on the best part of life.

The Power of being Alone

If you are only happy when you can spend time with someone who you regard as significant. Or you miss them so much that you feel your life is incomplete without them….then you still have a long way to go in the study of how to be alone. The power of being alone doesn’t mean that you have dedicated your life to the path of hermithood….only inferior men think this way. It means you have a deep understanding that ONLY those who can be alone, can truly love and appreciate the fullness of what life has to offer.

Crouching Dragon in the shadow of the wings of an Eagle

Q: Tell us. How will the Russo Ukrainian war play out on the geopolitical chessboard?

A: You have come from afar. I really must insist that you frame your question in a more specific manner.

6 months later

Q: How will the Russo Ukrainian war end? Who will end up winners n losers……what will happen to little Singapore? One more thing…..do you see a decision nexus in this chessboard.

A: A Decision nexus?…so the eagle has finally heard the falconer? Tell me how many years has it been since the last of the Navigators projected this far into this timeline….I am sorry if I am sentimental abt all this, but it has been so long that I am now an old man. Hence I am inclined to believe it all happened in a different lifetime.

Q: You dont remember the man called Darkness?

End of Transmission. Message Capsule 90183849 – 01 IMG

The Moral way to correct bad behavior

(1) State the charge to the accused clearly.

(2) Furnish supporting evidence to justify the charge

(3) Explain very clearly why (1) is not acceptable. State the consequence that will happen if there is another infraction by the accused.

(4) Issue the punishment in accordance with natural justice (no natural justice is not some new age Deepak Choprak philosophy, it is a jurisprudential philosophy that requires study. You have to invest in knowledge here!)

WHAT NOT TO DO!

(A) Do not issue a correction without supporting evidence i.e your suspicions or rumors do NOT constitute evidence. They r just stuff in your head n other ppls head like 51shades of grey that come n go!

(B) Do not be opaque n mysterious in leveling the charge i.e JEHOVAH told me in dream to do this to you! Or worse of all, you do not even bother furnishing any reason for your actions. This is the greatest n most common error of disciplinary boards. They lack transparency n as a consequence cast doubt on their competence to conduct proceedings fairly without undue influence.

(C) Punish NOT to teach a lesson (it doesnt work!) or humiliate. Punish with the clear intent to rehabilitate. Hence there MUST be a face saving way to reintegrate the accused back to the community once he has served his sentence. This way he will not be vengeful or resentful.

This is dangerously flawed

The reason why I underscored this as dangerous is bc if you happen to be a businessman n you rely on this assessment to plan. You will definitely go bankrupt. Should you happen to be a bureaucrat who specializes in foreign policy n country risk analysis relying on this will floor you faster than you can count to three….its very dangerous because the ‘analysis’ seriously underestimates Russian industrial capacity n elides Russian manufacturing strategy when it shifts its entire economy to a war mode. The other factor that is seldom mentioned it is to the geopolitical interest of China that Russia has reserve industrial capacity to perpetuate the war n to enable Russia to do this, China will (or has already) continue to revivify Russian industrial capacity along with provide covert clandestine assistance. This is done not bc the Chinese love the Russians. Rather this strategy enables Russia to tie up NATO n US military forces, reserves and assets in the European theater which could otherwise be deployed against China in the Straits of Taiwan. Russia has to continue posing a clear n present threat to Europe that simply means the Chinese will even prop up the entire Russian military seige machine along with keep their economy humming happily along if needed! To me the end point of the conflict is when the Russians have successfulky partitioned Ukraine in such a way where they completely deny the Kiev regime access to the Black Sea, so this means the war will continue till Odessa is taken. The Russo Ukrainian war will not last more than 2 years. At some point the calculus of attrition whether in men or material will take effect, this is a mathematical certainty, but it will impact Ukraine first BEFORE it ever affects Russia n this will be a precursor to a negotiated settlement, but let us be clear the terms n conditions will not be based on the Istanbul terms mooted by Russia two years ago…..it will be Instanbul terms n much more in the form of a dicta for territorial concessions specifically the inclusion of Odessa within the current Crimean n Donbas aegis.

For me what remains disturbingly tragic abt this war is so many young men have perished unnecessarily simply because of a combination of brazen arrogance and seriously delusional n flawed foreign policy on the part of the EU n the US. The ultimate irony remains if it was actually British, French, German or even American troops dying in this unnecessary war instead of the only the brave Ukrainians, the politicians who keep on cackling that the Ukrainians should continue the ‘good’ fight will have absolutely no trouble in executing the fastest U turn in diplomatic history to find a peaceful solution to end this silly war.

Avoid being nasty n hasty when judging others

We all make judgements concerning others. Those who insist they don’t…..live in an intricate lie called magic fantasy…..now I am not saying per se being judgmental is wrong. To me its isnt simply because I have to make judgmental calls all the time n at times I have to so without really having all the facts or luxury of time like is he trying to scam me…..can I entrust him with this or that responsibility…..is this a go or stop situation….opportunity or trap……wait or strike?

So lets make an effort to be real here, being judgmental is part n parcel of the entire condition we refer too as living n marinating in people n their issues.…BUT given that we HAVE no choice other than to judge…what must be emphasized is there is a good way n also a destructive method of judging others….a humane n considerate way that is hardly perfect (this I am the first to admit)…..but at least its not evil n most importantly it doesn’t bring out the very worst in all of us n those who we choose to pass judgement on is maybe to FIRST put ourselves in their shoes….sounds like old fashion simple sensible advice. The problem I have discovered is its extremely tough to do as it demands alot of discipline in striving to undestand myself n the person who I am judging…..above all I discovered much to my surprise sometimes I don’t like what I see in myself.

I am just being very honest abt it.

The importance of growing teeth n claws

If you are too nice. Everyone will just walk over you like a floormat. We all know people who have given that treatment. Hence its jugular to be able to set boundaries n most importantly punish those who choose who cross those red lines.

During Covid. There were some (not all bc they understand that friendship needs to be nourished with trust) customers who took a very hard arse position with me by exploiting loop holes in their agreements….this in my opinion was not only unethical, but it also created bad will n eroded trust. But worse of all it created bad karma. To cut a long story short. I was forced to concede simply bc if I didn’t comply there would be serious legal repercussions. That was three and a bit years ago. Today the tables are turned n recently I arbitarily raised the price by 1,000 percent on these customers….it was a surprise Pearl Harbor attack…..there was no way they could interdict or for that matter even respond coherently…..of course this provoked outrage along with all sorts of colorful language concerning my person….but nonetheless I saw it right thru to its very logical unpleasant end….n if you ask why. Its simply bc there’s always a possibility something similar like Covid may come back again n who is to say that the world will not shut down for two more years again! But I am sure if that ever happens no one is going to low ball me ever again. Bc they know its bad for their karma…..and they would know only too well….to do all this one must understand the importance of being able to grow teeth n claws.

This in an opinion not only applies to business but it also relates to abusive relationships n managing people who don’t ever see the value to keeping their word. They have to be schooled on their error of their ways…..otherwise it will just go right on and on and on….

What you cannot protect. You do not own.