Status quo ante, Strikes, Game Theory and what will have to happen.

November 27, 2012

“Since you die-die MUST know apprentice, I will share with you what I will do, if I find myself facing off with those bus drivers. But you must promise me never to judge me for what I am about to tell you.

First, I wouldn’t quibble like those idiots whether it is a pay dispute or whether it is an improbable case of 200 people falling sick on the same day – clarity is so bloody important in a crisis. So I will probably call a spade a spade and call it a strike even if others decide to split hairs.

As if no one knows what they are even dealing with – then it is very difficult for anyone to act decisively and confidently. They will be tripping over themselves. There will be a lot of confusion. Wasted opportunities. No assumptions to plan the next move.

Now that I and others know what we are dealing with – the next question is would I begin negotiations with these strikers? No. You cannot allow people to put a gun to your head and then start negotiating. That is not how intelligent people go about the business of managing conflict  – ask yourself a fundamental question what it is a strike? That is to say, what is the goal? It is an act of aggression designed to cripple and disable with a premeditated element of surprise to gain a bargaining advantage. So tell what idiot in his right mind would even walk into negotiations under those lousy conditions? You have to brain dead to do that. In my book it is not so different from a surprise strike like Pearl Harbor. Right or wrong doesn’t even feature in the whole calculation. Once someone pulls that sort of stunt – the rule book goes right out of the window.That is something you deal with in the post mortem and never when the crisis is at the gate. Once a strike takes place, I will have to treat it as an act of aggression. I will sack the whole lot of them and send them packing. TI will not negotiate. Will the innocent be affected? Yes. Will I be hurt financially? Yes. Will services be disrupted? Probably, in the short term. Will my reputation suffer? Yes. Is this the right and moral thing to do? No. But in game theory it is the necessary thing to do. It is the most mathematically efficient decision nexus to maintain the status quo. Perhaps the only thing one can do under those given set of circumstances along with constraints.

As what you need to understand apprentice is the mathematics of necessity would leave me very little choice to consider morality, ethics etc – as in my calculation I cannot afford to think about those 200 workers at all or even their families – rather my focus will be on the million ball park or possibly more workers who may also have similar grievances and may consider taking similar steps to do the same. Never forget they are watching this. They are also performing their calculations. My second concern will be how the Chinanet may be weaponized to transform this into a Dreyfuss affair. That is a very real possibility. It is not theoretical. When I consider the larger picture and play out the various permutations in my mind then this is the only thing I can do, must do. The longer I dilly dally, the more I run the risk of confusing everyone along with creating opportunities for others to exploit. Now it is still possible to establish command and control. Tomorrow, it is 50/50. The day after tomorrow, there are no guarantees – I cannot believe these people do not even know how to crunch numbers.

Now that I have given you a run down, please do not be disappointed by my answer apprentice – I realize this is not the answer that you were expecting from me. I am sorry for that. But I am responsible for your tutelage and one day when you run your own plantation. I genuinely want you to be more successful than me. And that means, you really need to learn how to make these sort of calculations on your feet, instead of behaving like those indecisive procastining idiots. Trust me. This is what will have to happen if the goal is to keep the status quo ante. Every serious man knows it by now. They have gone through the numbers. Game theory never ever produces a if, maybe or perhaps, it is 0 or 1. Neither will I try to pretend to tell you this is a handsome thing either. It isn’t. But I really don’t see the outcome panning out any other way. Not even by so much as one millimeter from what I have just shared with you apprentice.”

Conversation captured in the moors of the Carphatian Steepes in the mineral rich planet of Kildron – relayed by the Interspacing Mercantile Guild.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: