Will 2021 be better or worse than 2020?

January 23, 2021

Kompf. Both will probably be remembered as lousy years ten years from now. If you think 2020 was bad. I think 2021 will be far worse, because many enterprises would have languished for a whole year without being able to do their thing. So even the most well resourced enterprise would feel the debilitating effects of attrition brought forth by a prolonged weak or non existent consumer economy in 2021. We can see this very clearly in Singapore. Despite attempts to restarted cruises and the bubble travel corridor. Both have run into complications. In the case of Malaysia the rates of infection went up when the authorities allowed interstate travel, so we can see that this is not easy problem to get a handle on. To exacerbate matters. The vaccination program thru out the rest of the world is proving harder and slower than was initially anticipated. It seems many poor nations don’t even have ready access to vaccines because rich countries have cornered the most of the inventory. Then there are those who are two minded about getting vaccinated. Their numbers are significant but small for the time being. But as more get vaccinated so will the number of side effects and it is reasonable to expect the fear factor of getting vaccinated to increase. As for the fate of businesses. I remain two minded, simply because interest rates are low and as for inflation its relatively flat and so long as the cost of money remains low, then I think most of the major economies will probably succeed in trying to jump start their economies by spending. But having said I am upbeat about businesses. I do not believe some traditional models of how business used to be conducted will never return again.

Kompf. I don’t think 2021 is going to be a good year at all.

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