Liberation or Ruination Tarrifs – Part 17

Q: A question that always comes out in every geo political discussion is whether the rise of China will be peaceful. What is your take on this. Your recent reply to CR15’s question concerning character was most enlightening to most of us, was it based on your personal experiences. Thank you. Its nice to hear from you again.

A: I dont think its possible for any emerging hegemon to rise to pole position without exerting disruptive power. It has never happened before! The only relevant consideration is really what is the nature of the power used, is it military? Or maybe its economic. Either way, both have the power to be highly disruptive and even transformational to the status quo. You can even say this is a necessary price for being a hegemon. China is no exception to this truism. Yes, I understand some commentators insist its not within the nature of the Chinese to exert their power over others, but in my assessment these people are naive and slightly sentimental they may understand China, but they simply dont understand the nature of power in the context of politics. Thats to say, Carl von Clausewitz was spot on when he said, war is simply a continuation of politics by other means. When we frame the question whether Chinas rise will be peaceful, we mistakenly assume this notion will occur somewhere in the distant future. To me China is already flexing its muscles, this has already happened possibly as far back as 2015 and it’s happening now and its likely to get more pronounce. Let us all discuss this shift by reviewing a case study. On May 7, India and Pak had the biggest air war in their torrid history. The MSM says its involved 120 planes, but the actual figure could be twice that. They also said, 5 indian planes were destroyed. Again the actual figure could be twice or even triple. Its hard to say without primary data. However one known outcome from this air war is that the Pak air force has escalatory dominance and not the IAF. The former are now getting stealth fighters from China, F35’s. This is an epic upset for the indians because they are forced now to buy super expensive stealth fighters from the US as stop gap before their one grown AMCA 5th gen fighters roll out. If they even roll out. They’re in a fix, because they just put all their hopes on the Rafale and on its premiere night, it turned out to be dud. But these are side dishes. The main issue is China has transformed thru its proxy Pak the Indian military doctrine from fighting a classical one front war to the East to possibly opening a new front to the North. This is a dramatic change. It will have far reaching geo economic implications for the global south for years to come. To compound matters for India, no country actually volunteered to stand beside India in her hour of need. Sure Israel put up their hands, but they are considered a pariah state by most sensible countries so they dont really count. The Quad which India is a member of just made teeth sucking sounds, so did the rest of the world. On the otherside, China and Turkey both stood by Pakistan. Tell me do you see the French deploying the Charles de Gaulle to the Indian ocean? Again this a dramatic shift. Following May 7, many militaries are now cancelling their planned Rafale procurement. This is also a dramatic shift. Contrary to what many say this shift is not because the Rafale or any other complimentary Western military class platform is inferior to what was showed up in May 7, but there seems to be very compelling evidence to suggest the Chinese provided the Paks with satellite support. Again this is a very significant shift simply because satellite support is the gold standard of forward interdiction and situational awareness, its a force multiplier that can transform a skinny third world military into a heavy weight hitter. Many militaries want this. They need it. Again this is a very significant shift. I am not going to go into the phipherary of war like what China is doing in the Indus valley to throw a spanner into India’s water strategy against Pak or for that matter dwell into the intrigues of whats happening in the Hambanthota harbor and how it fits into the blue water aspirations of the PLA in the Indian ocean and the Andaman and the straits of Malacca. But what I will say in response to your question is this, only because it is an intelligent question that has merit, no hegemon can rise without disrupting the status quo ante. Its not personal to China, you could even say CP13 that it is axiomatic to such a degree that it qualifies as a truism.