What would you do, if you were China concerning the rare earth embargo on the US and EU?

October 22, 2025

A: Kompf. I want to speak plainly. A rare earth embargo on the US and EU is a Pearl Harbor attack. Its a generational knock out blow. I don’t know what the Chinese planners were thinking when they pressed the big red button…..I am not saying they were wrong. But just like the Pearl Harbor attack was the outcome comprehensively wargamed? The Pearl Harbor attack was a great historical tactical feat, but it was actually a strategic failure because not a single US carrier was anchored at port on that fateful Sunday surprise attack and you could it even say this was the one reason that led to the eventual destruction of the Imperial Japanese Navy at Midway. So the question that you are asking me is not dissimilar to stepping into a time machine and asking a senior IJN planner what should he do the day after the Pearl Harbor attack? My response to that sort of question has to be rhetorical that’s to say – the die is cast…what do you expect me to do? Just like the Japanese were the day after Pearl Harbor, they are locked in like a man with two feet cast in a bucket of concrete. What is there to do now but to make the best out of a lousy situation…..what I great difficulty understanding the process of the Chinese decision nexus is this. They could have deployed a pheltora of embargoes on the US and their reliable allies and those measures would have the same attritional effect albeit with the chastening passage of time, but instead they opted for the atomic option. This is not brinkmanship, its stupidity that goes beyond the dictionary meaning of that word. Because after this the whole world which is essentially the US and EU is going to collectively unite against China. Instead of limiting the conflict to one front, now its a multi dimensional 4D war. The way I see it is like this from this point onwards China simply has to make the best of a lousy hand of cards…its wrong to assume just because they and they alone have rare earth’s that by itself gives them access to a pressure point that they can press to get whatever they want. That’s a childish assessment. I think from this point onwards things will get very messy and complicated for not only the EU and US, but for China as well. Because this is no longer a matter of how well one plays the game. As at a certain point the game itself can play the players and my fear is we are well beyond that tipping point.

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